SF Signal: Debating The Singularity

Debating The Singularity

This past Saturday, Stanford University helded the Singularity Summit, where various speakers debated the topic of the Singularity and if one will happen. The ZDnet article is a nice overview of what went on with some links to further responses to the debate. The summit web page has a really nice introductory reading list to get you up to speed on the current thinking.

As for me, I'm not sure what to think. I'm not sure that the holy grail of AI (strong AI in the parlance) is imminently achievable, if we can even get there at all. I think we'll have to get to quatum computers before we can achieve strong AI, IMO. At that point, if we reach it, I can see machine intelligence leaving us far behind. Which is why its a cool concept and certainly a fertile field for SF.

My guess for the singularity is on the order of half a million years, maybe never.

Sorry folks, but in order to devise an artificial mind to specification, humanity would have to have solved not one, but several foundational mysteries of the universe such as the mind-body problem, nature v. nurture, the relationship of symbol to reality and thought to symbol, not to mention G�delian paradoxes relating to reducing self-awareness to a finite logical system.

We are not talking about something like heavier-than-air flight, where the general principles are understood, natural examples of birds hover before our eyes, and the only question is designing a tool to do something we know can be done.

Instead we are talking about questions which have baffled mankind since the dawn of history, on which we have made precious little to no progress, and which are not open to empirical investigation. There is no way to measure consciousness or analyze it, much less self-aware consciousness. Armed only with a yardstick and stopwatch, how does one convince a solipsist that consciousness aside from his own exists?

Does anyone really think the nature of Thought, or the hidden causes of Inspiration, Art, Morality, Logic, Reason, Emotion, Passion, Memory, Intuition, and the relationship between Brain and Idea are going to be discovered any time soon? We do not even have a scientific definition for the minimum unit of thought processes. What is the relationship between the firing of a synapse and the minimum syllable of a concept that conveys meaning? Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?

Now, if we are talking about merely creating the conditions under which consciousness arises, setting up an environment where a simple set of reflexes can evolve into a self-aware being, well ... every Mom who has raised a child knows how to do that, and have been doing it for years.

Posted by John C. Wright on Monday May 15, 2006 at 4:31 PM