This past Saturday, Stanford University helded the Singularity Summit, where various speakers debated the topic of the Singularity and if one will happen. The ZDnet article is a nice overview of what went on with some links to further responses to the debate. The summit web page has a really nice introductory reading list to get you up to speed on the current thinking.
As for me, I’m not sure what to think. I’m not sure that the holy grail of AI (strong AI in the parlance) is imminently achievable, if we can even get there at all. I think we’ll have to get to quatum computers before we can achieve strong AI, IMO. At that point, if we reach it, I can see machine intelligence leaving us far behind. Which is why its a cool concept and certainly a fertile field for SF.